Silent Majority: Are pre-election surveys missing the real voter sentiment?

With six more days to go, people wonder who will be the top 12 senatorial candidates after counting.

How many senators from Alyansa, PDP Laban, Liberal Party or independents will make it? On the local levels, who will be the winning mayors in Marikina, Malabon, Las Pinas, Cebu City and other hotly contested areas? Are the published surveys by different poll groups truly reflective of national choices?

Survey critics argue that 1,500 or 2,000 respondents are not enough as these can lead to skewed outcomes that don’t accurately reflect the opinions of the broader public. 

Honestly, I had a pretty good experience with most, if not all political survey groups during my work at ABS-CBN news and current affairs during  three Presidential polls in 1992, 1998 and 2004, including five senatorial midterm elections in 1995, 2001  midterm and 2004. During those times, I saw first-hand how political surveys are created, from inception into implementation until their  final announcement on TV PATROL and then World Tonight.

As I was heavily engaged in election coverage matters during those times, my skepticism about poll surveys was getting heavier. Even after retirement, these thoughts were amplified in the next seven senatorial polls: 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022 and now this coming Monday.

I would assume that with six days before election day, pollsters are still having a difficult time tracking people who are willing to share how they will vote or at least not willing to vote. As I’ve mentioned, we have a situation where the majority of our people are choosing to be “silent” about their choices, especially with the recent arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte and the heated exchanges between VP Sara and PBBM allies. While more than 50 percent agreed with the arrest, there are no open or public demonstrations on this issue. On the other hand, the opposition led by VP Sara is all around social media, and even on the mainstream media, with trolls clamping down on every negative comment against the former president and her family.

Which brings us to the question: are these pollsters accurately tracking the other side or the anti-Duterte voters?

In poll surveys, there are people who avoid or even mislead pollsters about their true sentiments. Even if people say that they are likely to vote, what they really do on election day may be different. This means that polling data may contain information about people who never cast a ballot.”

Today, highly agitated opposition supporters are flooding the internet  with their partisan  commentary and these are pushing up their polling averages. Mainstream media are seeing these numbers and perhaps concluding that the opposition is somehow gaining.

But did these pollster groups  have the “correct” sampling bias? Was there oversampling in particular demographics, such as asking Alyansa voters in Duterte bailiwicks or asking pro-Duterte voters in Alyansa strongholds? Or asking Alyansa voters in Alyansa bailiwicks and Duterte voters in Duterte bailiwicks? 

The results are skewered dramatically either way or the favored way. 

This is why the public must know who commissioned the survey in the first place. Or who has direct connections to the owners or officers of the survey company? If there are and biased, then as they say colloquially, “alam na this”.  

Another issue is the difference between a registered voter and a likely voter. Who can guarantee that this likely voter will cast a ballot on election day? Polling accuracy is heavily dependent on turnout models. And this “uncertainty” of not knowing how many people will actually vote, makes all pre-election predictions fundamentally flawed.

Inaccurate polling can significantly impact public perceptions and voter behavior. When polls misrepresent the true sentiment of the electorate, it can create a false sense of momentum for certain candidates, potentially influencing undecided voters to align with the perceived majority. 

In a 2021 US survey by the Northwestern University Medill Local News Initiative indicated the following results: On the question of polls’ accuracy, 56.3% agreed or strongly agreed that polls were an unreliable measure of public opinion, while just 20.1% disagreed or strongly disagreed.

The debate over the reliability of poll surveys is complex and multifaceted. While there are valid reasons to approach polls with skepticism—such as sampling bias, the distinction between registered and likely voters, and the influence of partisan polling—there are also compelling arguments for their utility in understanding sentiment and trends. 

The bottom line for our people is this: Ignore all the polling noise and focus on what really matters: turning out to vote. Before I end, I will quote a favorite Washington Post columnist who said, “Pollsters should really worry that their profession might soon be regarded as more like astrology than political science”.

My Top Six Picks for the 2025 Midterm Elections

Up until today, I barely completed my full slate of twelve senatorial candidates for Monday. So far, I have finalized just six initial choices hoping and to complete the other six on election day.

Of course, Top of my list is former DILG Secretary, MMDA Chairman and Mandaluyong mayor and lawyer Benhur Abalos. This is a person who truly adheres to his public service motto “Gawa Hindi Salita” (Action not words). His executive experience, connection with people and being a top-notch attorney are his main ticket to the Senate.

Second on my list is Makati Mayor Abby Binay, another lawyer-executive known for better and unparalleled and clean governance in her beloved city. Being a well-rounded city executive, she is in touch with her “masa” and their immediate needs.

Thirdly of course, fellow broadcaster and ACT party list representative Erwin Tulfo. Aside from being a former colleague at ABS-CBN, he was my co-respondent in the infamous Luneta hostage taking incident while being together at the Radio Mindanao Network (RMN). Erwin is most concerned and has a soft and generous heart for the poor and underpaid workers all from day one.

Fourth, former Senate President Tito Sotto, whose qualifications speak for themselves. Aside from being an excellent legislator, he is the unifying leader of the Senate proven many times over.

My fifth choice is the highly controversial Senator Imee Marcos, who recently immersed herself in political leaps and bounds. She is a fellow Waraynon  who is  exceptionally loud or boisterous politically but  her performance as a legislator remains outstanding. She is a vote for my beloved and lesser prioritized Eastern Visayas.

The sixth senatorial candidate I will vote for is Deputy Speaker and Las Pinas Congresswoman Camille Villar. I voted for her father Manny Villar in the 2016 Presidential elections won by Pnoy.  That was the last time we had an opportunity to have a businessman President in Manny who is now the richest Filipino. Even without the Marcoses or Duterte, this political family is here to stay. Camille has the gravitas to succeed her controversial but highly effective mother Cynthia.

So there, I have six other senatorial candidates  on my  list but I will keep them close to my heart and write their names on my ballot.  Don’t forget, let’s get out on Monday and participate in our democracy!